INDEPENDENT COST ANALYSIS MODEL v1.0

Home to School Transport Policy Audit
Policy Audit Verdict
Bad Policy Decision
Projected costs exceed claimed savings
8-Year Net Cumulative Balance
-£1,234,567
True fiscal outcome after costs are deducted
COSTS EXCEED SAVINGS
Alternative Vehicle Cost (8 Yrs)
£17,227,447
Required free transport due to route fracturing
Appeals Cost (S1+S2+S3) (8 Yrs)
£159,242
S1 reviews, S2 panels, and Ombudsman inquiries
General Admin Cost (8 Yrs)
£140,000
Mapping updates, software, systems and liaison
Savings Eaten By Costs
584%
Percentage of claimed savings consumed
8-Year Policy Financial Projection
Annual Financial Breakdown Dynamic Output
Year Alt Vehicle Spot/Cum Cost Appeals (S1 / S2 / S3) Count Appeals Spot/Cum Cost General Admin Spot/Cum Cost STAG Projected Cost Council Claimed Savings (Phased) Net Savings / Deficit
Unit Cost Escalation: Legacy vs. Fragmented Operational Realities

Transitioning to a "nearest school only" policy fractures bus routes. Instead of transporting children on large-capacity coaches, the council is forced to commission bespoke daily alternative vehicle contracts for isolated rural pupils, resulting in a massive increase in per-pupil transport costs.

Transport Type Average Capacity Annual Vehicle Cost Annual Cost Per Head
Dispute Resolution / Administrative Machinery Overhead Appellate Costs

Excluding families from free transport triggers a massive pipeline of administrative appeals. Processing these appeals consumes thousands of officer hours, clerk resources, and senior management reviews.

Appellate Stage Staff Requirements Processing Model Fully Loaded Unit Cost
⚠️ The "100% Behavioural Compliance" Trap

The council's financial model assumes that 100% of affected families will accept losing transport and fund their own travel to their preferred catchment school.

If parents instead enroll their children in their new "nearest" school to secure free transport, the council must commission new, un-optimised routes, driving up costs.
⏳ The Cohort Lag Paradox

Because the policy applies only to new intake pupils, large capacity buses must continue running the same routes at 100% contract costs to service grandfathered cohorts.

The council's model falsely reports immediate savings on routes where vehicle contract costs remain entirely fixed for years.
💷 Cross-Border Funding Drain

For border families, the nearest school often falls inside a neighboring local authority, directing pupil funding away from North Yorkshire schools.

NYC effectively exports £6,500 per pupil annually straight to competing neighboring councils.
Reinstating Catchment-Based Transport for North Yorkshire Families